Some scenarios this winter could see rolling power cuts for consumers at peak times, NGESO said in its Winter Outlook Report. The system operator stressed that a suite of measures were available to help manage power supply despite “uncertain and volatile” gas markets after Russian pipeline supplies to Europe were halted. A fall in availability for French nuclear power and Norwegian hydro will mean that base case scenarios are expected to have extensive power and gas trading across interconnectors to make the most of differing peak hours between GB and Europe and across the bloc but NGESO expected supplies to be above demand in most cases. NGESO said new tools including demand side response that would cut use at peak times, or the use of coal-fired generation, would help that. However a stress scenario with no electricity available to be imported from Europe to GB, and a second with a shortage of gas supplies in addition, could require a demand to be curtailed – ie consumers left without power. That would typically mean some consumers would be off supply for a three hour period. NGESO said it was important for vulnerable customers to ensure they were on the Priority Service Register so the effect on them would be minimised.
Download the NGESO Winter Outlook Report here
Download the gas Winter Outlook Report here
Industry comment:
Jess Ralston, Senior Analyst, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) :
“Last year the grid stood solid during the winter, but the gas crisis has changed the outlook this year because there is still a large unknown around how high the gas price will go and what will be available.
“We didn’t need to be here. Had investment in energy efficiency and onshore wind gone ahead over the past few years, we’d be much more certain about meeting demand. Every spin of a wind turbine and loft lagged means less gas we need to try to buy.
“Bringing more market dynamics into the electricity system makes sense and will help to bring bills down not only for those households taking advantage and switching their energy use to off-peak times, but will reduce the need for the most expensive gas plants to come online in the first place, cutting the nation’s overall electricity bill.”
Greg Jackson, CEO, Octopus Energy Group:
“Of course, blackouts are unlikely but we could eliminate them altogether. Instead of cutting off whole chunks of the country if we are short of gas, we can reward people who choose to use less energy at times of peak demand. After all, some people have critical needs – for example when using electrical medical equipment, whilst others are happy to watch Netflix on a laptop for a while.”
Siobahn Meikle, Managing Director – UK & Ireland, Eaton:
“Whilst it’s positive to see elements of grid flexibility being discussed in the latest National Grid predictions, it is still worryingly focused on minimizing consumption – rather than getting the right energy storage systems in place.
The UK urgently needs a system-wide approach and a better market for demand-response flexibility products. The technology needed to smooth the variability of renewable energy supplies and shift the focus away from energy consumption is already here, but definitions of what this storage should look like remain desperately unclear. We should be doing everything we can to enable tech-led solutions, not resorting to war-time rationing that puts the onus, yet again, on consumers.”
Chris Matson, Partner, LCP:
“In line with National Grid’s latest report looking ahead to the winter, our recent analysis also found that, without imports from Europe, we could expect ten hours this winter where demand in the UK will exceed available electricity supply. With coal fired power stations already on standby to step in when needed, even this may not be enough, meaning the upcoming launch of a scheme to incentivise businesses and households to reduce their electricity use at key times will be critical and as yet unproven.
“It is notable National Grid’s worst case scenario in this latest forecast estimates households could lose power for up to three hours at a time this winter, and our own study did outline the very high possibility of power cuts this winter. Since these forecasts were published, the energy crisis on the continent continues, and uncertainty remains about the UK’s interconnector supply from Europe through the winter. Notably, our study suggested that either a cold winter or low wind output could see many more hours where supply of electricity is insufficient and the likelihood of an emergency situation increases”