Entso-e, the grouping for transmission network operators (TSOs) across Europe, has released an initial report into system adequacy for the winter which highlights the importance of meeting the EU’s new energy efficiency requirements.
It says the loss of load expectation is higher than last winter and described the winter situation as “critical but manageable with operational measures”. As usual at least a third of the gas in storage in Europe will be needed for power generation (rather than heat), which will be crucial because of other system stresses such as current hydrological conditions and low nuclear availability in France.
“Simultaneous scarcity situations in various countries need close attention,” the group says. The highest likelihood of shortages is in the Irish system and France, which may see shortages before the end of 2022. In other countries the highest risk is in January and February.
Southern Norway and Sweden may be additionally affected by dry conditions, while isolated markets (Malta and Cyprus) are generally at risk.
The group says the stressed situation in many countries should be manageable “with appropriate mitigation, preparation, coordination, and operational measures”. Cutting electricity consumption as foreseen in the recently adopted EU Regulation for an emergency intervention to address high energy prices – “will mitigate the adequacy risk significantly”. It said “If 10% demand reduction objective is met, adequacy risks become negligible and critical gas dependency reduces by 30%. Even a 5% peak shaving can mitigate most risks in continental Europe,” although some risk in France remains.
Ensto-e says electricity TSOs will take measures at national level and tightly coordinate at regional and pan-European levels. Although local load curtailment is one option to manage times when the system is under too much stress, TSOs can also lower the voltage for periods of a few hours and to reduce consumption while keeping all consumers supplied.
The winter assessment does not consider saving gas for winter 2023/2024. Ensto-e said, “Adequacy assessments for the next winter 2023/2024 will depend on multiple factors, including how cold the coming winter is, how successful are demand reduction measures and to what extent Europe can refill its gas reserves and further diversify supply.”
The group will release an updated report on 1 December.
Read the full report here