The government does not yet understand the full range of possible impacts and cascading effects of severe space weather, the National Audit Office (NAO) said in a new report.
The government has a good understanding of some of the initial and knock-on impacts of a reasonable worst-case scenario, such as causing localised power outages affecting many services. However, there are limitations in scientific understanding and departmental planning around the possible impacts and cascading effects on sectors such as digital, and on how short disruptions to global navigation satellite systems would affect transport.
The government has not yet set out how resilient it would like the UK to be to severe space weather nor what level of resilience its spending will provide. It does not know its total spending on managing the risk of severe space weather (although such investments also increase resilience to other risks).
Responsibility is split between the Met Office (risk identification and risk assessment) and DSIT, the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero and the Department for Transport (prevention, resilience, preparation and emergency response).
The Met Office opened its Space Weather Operations Centre in 2014 – one of a handful of 24/7 space weather prediction centres globally. It issues space weather alerts and specialist forecasts that can help sectors take preventative action, for example shutting down at-risk electricity transformers to prevent damage.
There is more to do to make forecasting information useful for government officials and industry. The Met Office has worked with the electricity sector, among others, to develop specialist forecasts. However, other sectors continue to find the technical information difficult to interpret.
The government has begun testing the effectiveness of response plans, but to date tests have been limited in number and scope. DESNZ ran three discussion exercises in 2024 but a full simulation exercise involving local responders has not yet been run and there is no systematic learning between departments.
The report said roles and responsibilities for managing the risk remain unclear, accountabilities could be stronger, and the government has yet to set out what outcome it is looking to achieve and the level of residual impacts it is willing to accept (risk appetite).
There is more the government can do to engage local responders and businesses in planning to ensure the effectiveness of its whole-of-society response.
The report recommended that in its new severe space weather preparedness strategy the government must define what outcomes it is seeking, the work required and prioritisation.
By the end of 2026, DSIT should review governance arrangements for overseeing the risk of severe space weather to strengthen leadership, accountability and assurance arrangements as required.
To strengthen response plans, DSIT should develop a continuous plan of learning and exercising by September 2026. This should include:
• roles and responsibilities for severe space weather resilience across the public sector;
• what level of resilience to severe space weather’s impacts the government is seeking for the UK to achieve, including agreeing expectations for different sectors;
• what public investment will be required to deliver its objectives; and
• which knowledge gaps on severe space weather’s impact the government will prioritise and fill.
By the end of 2026, DSIT should review governance arrangements for overseeing the risk of severe space weather to strengthen leadership, accountability and assurance arrangements.
DSIT should carry out a command-post exercise on severe space weather, involving sectors and local responders, in the next three years. It should add detail and precision to its plans to encompass a whole-of-society approach by March 2027, including developing a severe space weather communications plan for UK businesses and citizens in the event of an emergency.